Nifty Outlook for 27th January 2012

Nifty Outlook for 27th January 2012

So finally, Nifty achieved the target of 5169 envisaged by us during the 1st week of Jan. Today's Key support level 5125,while key resistance level would be 5202.

Nifty Outlook for 25th January 2012

Nifty Outlook for 25th January 2012

Nifty barely 42 points away from our target of 5169.In the first week of January(2nd/3rd Jan) we have had mentioned in trend check table that close above 4710 will trigger short squeeze rally of 140 odd points.There was some consolidation before nifty broke 4854 on upside. Bears were squeezed out from the system  above 4938 level.We have had mentioned in trend check table that breakout above 4938 will trigger 230 points rally. We were harping to the point that the rally could be as big as Oct  2011 rally(4710 to 5399).Today's key resistance level 5169 (closing basis),while support  exists at 5086(closing basis).Long traders should book profit  around 5169 as market is extremely overbought and  bears will pounce on the slightest negative news(global or local) which  can trigger sharp vertical fall.Profit booking expected below 5086 level,Termination of the rally below 4968 level.Short positions will be created as and when nifty breaches 5086/5068/5025 level.

Nifty Outlook for 23rd January 2012

Nifty Outlook for 23rd January 2012

On 30/60 min chart, Nifty will gain above 5062.Conversely,correction will set in,should the nifty break 5004 on 30/60 min chart.Huge downside risk opens up below 4968/4938 levels.

Nifty Outlook for 20th January 2012

Nifty Outlook for 20th January 2012

Nifty closed above 5000.We were of the view that rally this time will be similar to the one seen in Oct 2011.Street sentiments changed from Risk aversion to Risk on.Market can humble the best,so not taking anything for granted,long positions from 4812/4854 should trail stop loss at 4938/4982.On 3rd Jan we have had mentioned that hourly close above 4710 will trigger powerful bear rally.Will this turn out to be an another classical bear rally?Well,for now budget holds the  key & will be the single most high weightage factor as a trend decider.

Which factor can play spoilsport ?-- Last month we added two factors in Risk matrix -- Anticipation of  a reformist budget (advantage bulls) & Iran issue(advantage bears) -- The first factor ; Street expectation of a reformist budget is fueling current stock market rally aided by weaker dollar v/s Rupee.Iran factor  & revisit of  EURO crisis could play spoilsport & then of course,in this age of internet,selective leakage of rumors of multiple defaults can trigger deep corrections.So traders should stay with stop loss,Respect market trend,maximize profits in winning trades(by employing TSL method),minimize loss in losing trades(by employing MSL method)

TREND

Very short term - Bullish
Short Term term - Last stage of euphoria
Medium term Trend -Budget will decide the trend.

Nifty Outlook for 19th January 2012

Nifty Outlook for 19th January 2012

Today's Key support & resistance level - 4938 & 5026.Yesterday,Nifty snapped a three- day winning streak.Nifty edged lower in choppy market,however the indices  closed above 4938 Level.Nifty may see intraday levels of 5026 during the day.Shorting opportunity exists below 4938,until then it is advisable to avoid positional shorts.

First signs of meaningful correction : 8EMA dropping below 34EMA on day charts,sudden drop of SLOW STOCH below 80,VIX rising above 25/25.50, EOD closing below 4938 & 4879.

Currently 8EMA is above 34EMA,though market looks overbought,FIIs cash buying coupled with weakness in dollar against rupee is fueling the current rally.

Nifty Outlook for 18th January 2012

Nifty Outlook for 18th January 2012

Today's key support & resistance level - 4938  & 4978.Though RSI suggests that Market is overbought,DI are indicating that this bear rally is much stronger,similar to the rally seen in Oct 2011 - From 4710 to 5360 SMR is  indicating that there is excessive of  greed in the system.Long traders should keep tight stop at 4879.Nifty will see more traction above 4978 closing.

Nifty Outlook for 17th January 2012

Nifty Outlook for 17th January 2012

Key Support & Resistance level - 4841 & 4879.On 30/60 min chart - Nifty move below 4841 will weaken the sentiments.Nifty may drag down towards 4807.Conversely,Nifty sustaining above 4879 can be seen as a bullish signal towards 4900 & 4938.

Nifty Outlook for 16th January 2012

Nifty Outlook for 16th January 2012

On 30/60 min chart - Nifty move below 4841 will weaken the sentiments.Nifty may drag down towards 4807 & further selling may lead to levels of  4773.Long trades will be profitable above  4869/4879 level,until then the intraday trade favors bears.

Nifty Outlook for 13th January 2012

Nifty Outlook for 13th January 2012

Today's key level to watch out : 4812/4807 on downside & 4869/4879 zone on upside.

On 30/60 min chart - Nifty move below 4812/4807 will weaken the sentiments.Nifty may drag down towards 4773 & below.On Flip side,Crossover above 4869/4879 will give further impetus to this ongoing rally.Bulls may eye 4900 during intraday.

Nifty Outlook for 12th January 2012

Nifty Outlook for 12th January 2012

Today's key level to watch out : 4812/4807 on downside & 4869/4879 zone on upside.On 30/60 min chart - Nifty move below 4812/4807 will weaken the sentiments.Nifty may drag down towards 4773 & below.Conversely,Nifty sustaining above 4854 will be a strong signal for further impetus to this ongoing rally. Crossover above 4869/4879,Nifty has upside potential of at least 45-50 points during Intraday.

Nifty Outlook for 11th January 2012

Nifty Outlook for 11th January 2012

Finally bulls managed to take out congestion area(4770-4787). After 4 days of consolidation/flat closing ,Nifty finally hits our target of 4854 mentioned in trend check table.The trading signal was, On 15/30 min chart,move above congestion area ( 4770-4787) nifty will hit 4812 & 4854.Does this mean that market has bottomed out? Well none of risk indicators are pointing towards trend reversal in big way.This may be one of many bear market rallies.Big triggers or headlines to watch out is budget,policy action before and after budget & controlling of FISCAL DEFICIT.Today's key level to watch out : 4812 on downside & 4869/4879 zone on upside.

Nifty Outlook for 10th January 2012

Nifty Outlook for 10th January 2012

Monday was Fourth consecutive flat closing.Nifty is trading within 4660-4770 range.On 15/30 min chart,move above the congestion area(4770-4787) will trigger further buying & nifty is likely to move towards 4812/4854.Conversely  Bears will have an upper hand below 4720.Intraday move below 4694 could trigger further slide towards 4664.

Nifty Outlook for 9th January 2012

Nifty Outlook for 9th January 2012

On friday,nifty attempted to take out 4787 on closing basis but after last hour spike to 4795,Nifty pared its gain to turn into negative zone.Nifty is trading within 4660-4770 range.On 15/30 min chart,move above the congestion area(4770-4787) will trigger further buying & nifty is likely to move towards 4812/4854.Bears will have an upperhand below 4720 & 4664 closing.

Nifty Outlook for 6th January 2012

Nifty Outlook for 6th January 2012

Today's Key Support & Resistance Level - 4720 & 4787.There is congestion area for nifty around 4770-4787.In Last 3 trading sessions Nifty failed to get past 4787.With special trading session tomorrow,bulls have two more chances to get past 4787.On 15 min chart,move above this congestion area will trigger further buying & nifty is likely to move towards 4812/4854.Bears will have an upperhand below 4720 & 4664 closing.

Nifty Outlook for 5th January 2012

Nifty Outlook for 5th January 2012

Today's Key Support & Resistance Level - 4720 & 4787.

Bulls may attempt to take  out 4787 by this weekend,failure to get past 4787 & close below 4710 /4664  will give first  confirmation signal of extreme bearish pattern - descending triangle ( with well established  two intermittent trough - 4531 & 4588 combined with declining volume). This pattern may  happen on account of renewed high risk aversion towards equities  because of developing geopolitical risk - US/EU increasingly tense stand off with Iran over its nuclear program may worsen going head into 2012.Refer Trend check table & last week's write up.

Nifty Outlook for 4th January 2012

Nifty Outlook for 4th January 2012

Today's Key Support & Resistance Level - 4720 & 4787.Nifty rallied spectacularly above 4685.Though yesterday's gap may look like an Exhaustion gap,traders should wait patiently for a definite confirmation  before shorting the Nifty.The key component of an Exhaustion gap is extraordinary high  volumes, indicative of distribution. Yesterday's Volumes were tepid.Exhaustion gap will come into play should Nifty fail to take out yesterday's high of 4773  in next couple of trading days.4720 & 4664 are key support levels,breach of both the levels,will result into Nifty  falling precipitously without any retracements & possible breach of dec low of 4531.Flip side of this trade would be,bulls taking charge above 4787 EOD closing with a potential upmove towards 4854 and above.

Nifty Outlook for 3rd January 2012

Nifty Outlook for 3rd January 2012

Today's Key Support & Resistance Level - 4587 & 4710.Nifty will face resistance at 4685.Move above 4664 & 4685 on 30/60 min chart will make way for  4710/4720.While Bears will have an upper hand below 4625/4609.

Nifty Outlook for 2nd January 2012

Nifty Outlook for 2nd January 2012

Today's Key Support & Resistance Level - 4587 & 4710.On 30/60 min chart, 4609 is key support level.Breach of this level will open up possibility of testing 4587.Flip side of this trade would be Nifty moving above 4639.Potential upside target of this move is likely to be 4664 & 4689.

Five Key  factors to watch out in 2012 - Fiscal Deficit(anything above 6 will invite downgrades) ,Rupee(anything above 55,even IT companies will face the heat),Crude oil(Weakening rupee & crude above 100 will widen fiscal deficit further),Political stability(Some of allies of UPA may create problems,election results in state assemblies) & EU end game(fiscal integration or  will EURO break-off?)