Nifty Outlook for 20th January 2012
Nifty closed above 5000.We were of the view that rally this time will be similar to the one seen in Oct 2011.Street sentiments changed from Risk aversion to Risk on.Market can humble the best,so not taking anything for granted,long positions from 4812/4854 should trail stop loss at 4938/4982.On 3rd Jan we have had mentioned that hourly close above 4710 will trigger powerful bear rally.Will this turn out to be an another classical bear rally?Well,for now budget holds the key & will be the single most high weightage factor as a trend decider.
Which factor can play spoilsport ?-- Last month we added two factors in Risk matrix -- Anticipation of a reformist budget (advantage bulls) & Iran issue(advantage bears) -- The first factor ; Street expectation of a reformist budget is fueling current stock market rally aided by weaker dollar v/s Rupee.Iran factor & revisit of EURO crisis could play spoilsport & then of course,in this age of internet,selective leakage of rumors of multiple defaults can trigger deep corrections.So traders should stay with stop loss,Respect market trend,maximize profits in winning trades(by employing TSL method),minimize loss in losing trades(by employing MSL method)
TREND
Very short term - Bullish
Short Term term - Last stage of euphoria
Medium term Trend -Budget will decide the trend.
Nifty closed above 5000.We were of the view that rally this time will be similar to the one seen in Oct 2011.Street sentiments changed from Risk aversion to Risk on.Market can humble the best,so not taking anything for granted,long positions from 4812/4854 should trail stop loss at 4938/4982.On 3rd Jan we have had mentioned that hourly close above 4710 will trigger powerful bear rally.Will this turn out to be an another classical bear rally?Well,for now budget holds the key & will be the single most high weightage factor as a trend decider.
Which factor can play spoilsport ?-- Last month we added two factors in Risk matrix -- Anticipation of a reformist budget (advantage bulls) & Iran issue(advantage bears) -- The first factor ; Street expectation of a reformist budget is fueling current stock market rally aided by weaker dollar v/s Rupee.Iran factor & revisit of EURO crisis could play spoilsport & then of course,in this age of internet,selective leakage of rumors of multiple defaults can trigger deep corrections.So traders should stay with stop loss,Respect market trend,maximize profits in winning trades(by employing TSL method),minimize loss in losing trades(by employing MSL method)
TREND
Very short term - Bullish
Short Term term - Last stage of euphoria
Medium term Trend -Budget will decide the trend.
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