Tuesday, December 3, 2013

Nifty trend - State elections results on 8th of December will be a trend decider.



Since Nov 13th, Nifty trend is clearly buy on dips as articulated in our post made on Oct 28th & Nov 13th.We were of the view,that Nifty will not breach 5981/5944 & traders should employ buy on dips strategy.Going forward, Nifty will remain range bound up until 6th of December.State election results will set a new trend for Nifty.Stock market perceives BJP win as a positive for market.Should BJP win 3 or 4 states Nifty may breach all time high and scale up towards 6500-6600 by Dec-Feb. On Flip side, if Congress wins 2 states ( excluding mizoram),market may sell off to levels to 5944 & 5744.Macro data released in past 2 weeks were mixed bag.The macroeconomic data released last week show true picture of Indian Economy.The weak order books of capital goods firms tell the same story of a moribund investment cycle.Till the investment cycle picks up pace, the GDP will not perk up. GDP data for September quarter showed a minor improvement over the weak June quarter, but much of the recovery seems to be driven by good monsoon.Besides,depreciating rupee helped in the exports.Until core economy performs well, there is little or no change in the growth outlook.With General elections coming up in next 6 months,expect no miracle on this front, at best the govt can maintain status-quo.Though Govt can tom-tom about CAD,the inflation & fiscal deficit are still a big worry.Most of the union ministers including FM,HM are competing among each other to vie for post of MODI BASHING MINISTRY.Govt is better off to let spoke persons do this job instead of senior ministers.Delayed tapering and easing of geopolitical tension are golden opportunities to set the economy in order.Lets not squander this opportunity. Nifty's immediate Resistance levels are 6291 & 6342. Immediate support levels are 6162 & 6082.
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